Reference
References
Sources on what the evidence does and doesn’t show about AI in education. They support the framework’s starting point: claims of AI’s value are common, while rigorous evidence is thin. The last group lists the frameworks this one builds on.
The evidence debate
- Hechinger Report. (2026, October 26). 39 meta-analyses, 39 positive findings: An audit finds serious flaws in research on AI in education. hechingerreport.org/proof-points-ai-education-meta-analysis/
- Inside Higher Ed. (2026, September 14). The “nonexistent” research on AI’s benefits for education. www.insidehighered.com/news/tech-innovation/artificial-intelligence/2026/09/14/nonexistent-research-ais-benefits-education
- Psychology Today. (2026). AI in education is an unknown, humans are not. www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-emergence-of-skill/202602/ai-in-education-is-an-unknown-humans-are-not
Research and reviews
- Bartoš, F., Bujak, O. Z., Martinková, P., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2026). Effect of artificial intelligence on learning: A meta-meta-analysis [Preprint]. PsyArXiv. osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/h529e
- O’Neill, P. E. (2026). Presumed effective: The manufacturing of an evidence base for AI-in-education through flawed meta-analysis [Preprint]. EdArXiv. osf.io/preprints/edarxiv/n29zd
- Generative AI in higher education: A systematic review of empirical uses, outcomes, and risks. (2026). ScienceDirect. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666374026000130
- Stanford SCALE Initiative. AI Hub for Education: Evidence reports. Stanford University. scale.stanford.edu/
Procurement and practice
- EDUCAUSE Review. (2025). AI procurement in higher education: Benefits and risks of emerging tools. er.educause.edu/articles/2025/3/ai-procurement-in-higher-education-benefits-and-risks-of-emerging-tools
Analogous frameworks
This framework borrows from established ways of judging edtech and information systems. Here is what each contributes.
| Source | Idea | Where it shows up here |
|---|---|---|
| ASU + BCG digital learning ROI | Compare against a base case, not against nothing | Baseline, required before any rating |
| DeLone and McLean IS success | Use alone proves nothing; quality and use lead to net benefits | Use never counts as value; the quality check |
| Dutch 3E framework | Evaluate continuously, not once | Lifecycle loop and re-evaluation triggers |
| UNICEF EdTech for Good | Approve, approve with conditions, or not suitable | Continue with conditions; the five checks |
| Digital Promise procurement | Evaluate after the pilot, before scaling | Expand only after the pilot clears the band’s bar |
| EDUCAUSE edtech ROI | Usage-versus-cost views and annual value reviews | Annual portfolio review |
| Cost per successful outcome | Divide full cost, including rework, by accepted results | Value for money on the scorecard |
- Arizona State University & Boston Consulting Group. (2018). Making digital learning work: Success strategies from six leading universities and community colleges. edplus.asu.edu/sites/default/files/BCG-Making-Digital-Learning-Work-Apr-2018%20.pdf
- Every Learner Everywhere. Digital learning ROI resources (ASU + BCG framework for assessing the return on digital learning). www.everylearnereverywhere.org/es/resources/digital-learning-roi-resources/
- EDUCAUSE Review. (2025, December). Establishing ROI for evaluating edtech tools. er.educause.edu/articles/2025/12/establishing-roi-for-evaluating-edtech-tools
- Npuls. The Dutch 3E framework: Evidence-informed evaluation of edtech. npuls.nl/_assets/06705a66-725b-41ef-87f3-a96c07092b8c/EN-The-Dutch-3E-Framework-EdTech.pdf
- Dutch 3E framework [Record]. Zenodo. zenodo.org/records/15070789
- UNICEF. EdTech for Good framework (Version 2.0). www.unicef.org/digitaleducation/EdTech-For-Good-Framework-2-0
- UNICEF. EdTech for good. www.unicef.org/digitaleducation/edtech-for-good
- Digital Promise. Edtech procurement framework. digitalpromise.org/programs/edtech-procurement-framework/
- DeLone, W. H., & McLean, E. R. (2003). The DeLone and McLean model of information systems success: A ten-year update. Journal of Management Information Systems, 19(4), 9–30.
- Faros AI. Cost per outcome. www.faros.ai/blog/cost-per-outcome
- Kizzy Consulting. (2026). How to measure AI ROI: The 2026 framework for cost-per-outcome reporting. kizzyconsulting.com/how-to-measure-ai-roi-the-2026-framework-for-cost-per-outcome-reporting/
- CIO. Cost per successful outcome: The AI number Singapore CIOs should be reporting. www.cio.com/article/4230951/cost-per-successful-outcome-the-ai-number-singapore-cios-should-be-reporting.html
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